The hottest petrochemical industry, low temperatur

2022-08-13
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Petrochemical Industry: low temperature in the northern hemisphere drives up the price of industrial products

crude oil and refined oil: affected by low temperature and blizzard, the price rises

affected by the continuous blizzard in the northern hemisphere, the temperature in Europe, Asia and the United States continues to be low this winter. Low temperature and Blizzard not only increase the consumption of heating oil, but also affect the transportation in the northern hemisphere. The United States, Britain, Russia, China, South Korea and other countries are currently experiencing the biggest snowstorm in years. Affected by the snowstorm, the overseas sea and land transportation of various countries are obviously blocked, and the prices of crude oil and refined oil continue to rise. By January 11, WTI oil has exceeded $82/barrel. We believe that the rise in the price of crude oil and refined oil caused by this wave of low temperature and Blizzard is expected to continue until the Spring Festival. However, with the overall warming of the temperature in the northern hemisphere after the Spring Festival, the consumption of heating oil will continue, and the Chinese market has great growth potential. In the context of the overall global oil supply still exceeds demand, the international oil price will fall significantly in the interim

petrochemical intermediates: there will be obvious differentiation

driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the prices of petrochemical basic raw materials and derivatives have risen, setting off a new wave of rising momentum from upstream ethylene to downstream derivatives, and the ethylene glycol rate first hit a new high in the past 16 months. The price of petrochemical intermediates has a strong correlation with international oil prices. The rebound in international oil prices has driven the overall price of petrochemical intermediates higher. We expect that due to the great differences in the downstream of petrochemical intermediates, as the demand for pharmaceuticals and textiles increases, aromatics fluctuate closely with the international oil price, aromatic flexible packaging increasingly highlights the importance of light packaging attributes, and hydrocarbons have a high probability of rising in January. Affected by the real estate policy, the price increase of olefins is relatively small and slightly slower. Alcohol prices will fall after rebounding due to overcapacity and sufficient supply; Ketone prices will continue to rebound due to short supply

valuation

due to the small increase of large cap stocks in China's stock market driven by liquidity since 2009, the increase of large cap stocks in the international market is no worse than that of small cap stocks. At present, the average valuation level of the domestic petrochemical industry has been lower than the overseas average level. Based on the predicted performance in 2009, the average PE of the domestic petrochemical industry is 18.23 times, which is 19.59 times lower than the overseas average level. If 201 is the brand effect, in terms of the predicted performance in 2010, the average PE of China petrochemical industry was 13.81 times, which is also 15.42 times lower than the overseas average level. Give the investment rating recommended by the petrochemical industry

is still in an important period of strategic opportunities for development

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